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Model Portfolio

Model Portfolio

The Concepts
3Q 2002 Report
2Q 2002 Report
1Q 2002 Report
4Q 2001 Report

4th Quarter, 2001

December 31, 2001

Since our model portfolio started during the last quarter of the year, this quarterly report will also be our year-end report.

The first reporting period of our model portfolio coincided with a major turning point in the U.S. markets. After the terrorist attacks of September 11, the markets, already plunging, entered into a free fall, leading to the recent lows on September 21. The following week a strong and volatile rally started. Over the following weeks, the major indexes staged a series of follow through days, (as defined by Investor's Business Daily) confirming the new direction.

Our system, being based upon the concept of market confirmations (as opposed to market predictions, which are based on opinions), will always be "late" in its entry, because, at turning points, we wait for our trend indicators to signal the new trend in its weekly study. Furthermore, one of our core beliefs that says that it is necessary to give some gains back in order to capture potential big moves, make us not to attempt  jumping at the top. We always wait for the market to trigger our stops. This might be perceived as a drawback that inevitably leads to underperformance. However, one of the key features of our system is that it enters the markets when the downside risk is at its lowest, and exits them when the risk of cutting our gains short is at its lowest. Additionally, our system will keep most of our gains during periods of adverse conditions.

During most of this quarter, the market has been in an up-trend mode, although with wild volatility. The performance of our model portfolio was negatively impacted by initial errors in the implementation of the system. Mainly, a last minute adjustment in stops management. Changes that were not part of the preliminary study and therefore introduced doubts at moments in which swift and decisive action was needed. Another big mistake involved a lack of discipline in the execution of trading signals. Although this last issue can be solved by the means of using stop orders (with higher commissions), it reveals that personal improvement is necessary.

Discretional exits were used during the Thanksgiving long weekend, and during the year-end holiday, as the portfolio manager went on vacation. At the end of November, a non-regular deposit in the mid 3 figures was made. As noted in the allocation chart, the period ended with the account balance 100% in cash. The drop at the end of the performance chart reflect the impact of the management fees on the portfolio.

Trading watch will resume on January 2, 2002. Happy New Year!

Portfolio Statistics

Final Allocation


Period to Date


GCM Portfolio

S&P 500

Quarter (1) 7.60% 10.55%
Quarter (2) 5.73% 10.55%
Year (1) 7.60% 10.55%
Year (2) 5.73% 10.55%

(1) Before management fees

(2) Net after fees

Charts and data processed with Captools Software and proprietary spreadsheets. Performance net after management fees. Certain fixed expenses and taxes excluded.

Performance Charts

Quarter to Date